In college football, we define success in a way that might be less than obvious to outsiders. In most sports, you see, the goal is always a championship, either now or several years down the road. Every action, move, development, and choice is pressing towards that end. Consider, for instance, the White Sox: though their last few years have apparently been dedicated solely to getting further from championship contention, they’re really undergoing an extensive rebuild to acquire better players and boost their farm system. Those players, once developed, should combine with a timely market move on veterans and star players, which is exactly what Chicago did this offseason. Now they’re probably headed for the playoffs in the next few years.
The college game is different. Both in college basketball, where tournament appearances are often enough for a year to be successful, and in college football, where bowl appearances perform the same role, a team that will likely never have a shot at the actual championship can succeed in spite of ‘failing’.
By that metric, then, UTSA isn’t quite as bad as they appear on first glance. It’s true, yes, that they’ve only beaten the .500 mark thrice in eight FBS years, and they haven’t yet won a bowl. It’s equally true that they’ve put together just seven wins in the last two years, and head coach Frank Wilson (19-29 in four years in San Antonio) was ditched after the dismal 4-8 campaign last year.
On the other hand, a truly remarkable other hand that beggars belief, UTSA football didn’t exist a decade ago. The program was started over the latter half of the 2010s, playing its first game in FCS in 2011, then making the jump to FBS the year after. In the nine years since, their history has accumulated a surprising number of sparkling memories for a team that’s gone 41-56 so far. The Roadrunners own wins over 2014 Houston (8-5) and 2017 Baylor (1-11, yes, but the first P5 team UTSA beat), and they’ve had two players picked in the NFL Draft.
All of this marks incredible success for a team that hasn’t even racked up a full decade of FBS football yet. Yet the bare numbers, narrative stripped from them, tell a different story. UTSA has one of the ten worst records among FBS teams and the third-fewest wins. They ranked 116th in TERSE in 2019 and sit 124th in 2020. They are a dreadful football team, one of the worst in FBS.
And they’ve succeeded beyond all imagination.
That’s the paradox of college football.
Offence
2019 TERSE: 23.5 (116th)
2020 Returning Production (SP+): 76% (30th)
Okay, somebody has to say it. Lowell Narcisse should not start.
In the dreadful drop of 2018, coach Wilson apparently threw up his hands and gave significant snaps to four different players. Two have since graduated (Cordale Grundy and D. J. Gillins, if you must know, but really you mustn’t) and two are still here (Bryce Rivers, who’s notched a 58.3% completion percentage in 72 passes, and Jordan Weeks, with 51.6% in 124 attempts). Given those two choices, Wilson’s 2019 decision was…to give Rivers no passing attempts and let Frank Harris (games 1-3) and Lowell Narcisse (games 4-11) start ahead of Weeks (game 12).
Now, in fairness to Wilson, Harris was injured and out for the season. But the continued decision to start Narcisse over Weeks was mind-boggling. When Weeks finally took the reins for a season-ending showdown against Louisiana Tech (which went 10-3), he held his own, putting up 27 on a team that allowed an average of 22 all year. Weeks completed nearly 60% of passes for 280 yards, 1 TD, and 2 interceptions. Not a banner day, but a good one against a defence TERSE ranked in the top 50.
That stands in stark contrast to Narcisse’s performance over the previous eight games, in which he put together a 53.2% completion percentage, 153.3 yards per game, a 3-5 team record, and an 8:5 TD-to-INT ratio. Most coaches would take a chance on, well, anybody else on the roster, but Wilson waited until an altogether meaningless season-ender against LA Tech to do so. That stubbornness is probably a substantial part of the reason he now coaches the McNeese State Cowboys.
Good news, though: Harris is back! He should be the automatic starter, with perhaps a look from Weeks and no, Narcisse, no look for you. But new coach Jeff Traylor (175-26 at Gilmer High School in Arkansas) has stated he’ll try to avoid judging based entirely on last year’s performance, which sounds worryingly like ‘Narcisse has a chance’.
Oh, the rest of the team? Well, Sincere McCormick was pretty good at RB. And by ‘pretty good’ I mean he topped 1177 yards for a 4-8 C-USA team as a true freshman. The three-star from San Antonio’s suburbs is already a huge steal for UTSA. Aside from McCormick, the Roadrunners leaned on Carlos Strickland (a grad transfer TE with 492 yards receiving at his third FBS school in three seasons), Zakhari Franklin (a freshman WR with 491 yards receiving), Brenden Brady (a sophomore RB with 284 yards rushing and 115 more receiving), and Sheldon Jones (a sophomore WR with 259 yards receiving). The whole group returns for 2020, making for an exciting future on offence if the quarterback group finds its footing.
Defence
2019 TERSE: 27.3 (122nd)
2020 Returning Production (SP+): 53% (94th)
In 2017, UTSA upset Baylor, 17-10, in Waco, as the Bears headed for a dire 1-11 season. In the AP’s write-up of the game, the second sentence is as follows:
For Baylor, the results in their first two games under coach Matt Rhule have been more like a nightmare.
Associated Press, ‘UTSA gets 1st win over Power 5 with 17-10 win at Baylor’, espn.com
In 2018, Baylor got its revenge, defeating UTSA 37-20 in San Antonio, en route to a 7-6 rebound year. This time, the AP’s article shone a rather more favourable spotlight on Rhule:
“We found a way to be 2-0,” Rhule said. “Certainly not perfect. Certainly not where we need to be.”
Associated Press, ‘Brewer throws for 3 TDs, leads Baylor past UTSA, 37-20’, espn.com
In 2019, Baylor crushed the Roadrunners 63-14 at home, scoring at least two touchdowns in every quarter, with a thrilling 11-3 season in its early days. The AP offered an inkling of the glory to come in its article:
Handily taking care of the early part of the schedule is an indication of progress under third-year coach Matt Rhule.
Associated Press, ‘Mims has 3 TD catches for Baylor in 63-14 win over UTSA’, espn.com
One takeaway is that college football is really hard to understand. Nobody could have predicted the dominant rise of Matt Rhule and his Bears. But on the opposite side of the rags-to-riches tale is UTSA. Notice, in particular, the progression of points allowed: 10, 37, 63.
That’s about the direction the defence has gone over the past few years in San Antonio.
Did UTSA’s defence have good moments? Sure. Nobody should ever allow many points at all to an FCS team, but 7 given up to Incarnate Word was a fine sight to see for a typical bottom-feeder in Conference USA. The other three wins were also the unit’s three best performances against FBS (and C-USA) competition, holding UTEP, Old Dominion, and Rice to 16, 23, and 27 points respectively.
A big part of the reason UTSA lost the other eight games, though, was its defensive frailty. The Roadrunners yielded 31 points to Army, 36 to Southern Mississippi, 45 to North Texas. Senior linebacker Andrew Martel led the team in tackles with just 82. Only three players had more than two sacks.
But we can see some upside. UTSA’s returning production is bad, but not terrible, especially as two of those three sack leaders return as seniors (DeQuarius Henry and Lorenzo Dantzler come back, while Jarrod Carter-McLin graduates). And the defence has been a strength at UTSA before, like the 2017 team that gave up fewer points per game than all but 7 FBS schools. The team’s impressive ability to pluck surprise stars from San Antonio may also help rebuild the defence.
But step back for a moment and consider how odd this all is.
We’re talking about a team that’s been around for less than ten years. Sure, it isn’t anything like a top-tier college football program, but the difference between bottom-of-C-USA neighbours UTEP and UTSA is bigger than it appears from their colour schemes and name abbreviations.
Despite the subpar results from time to time, the Roadrunners have kept running. They’ve made a bowl, stunned a P5 team, sent players to the NFL. They’re a college football team like the rest of ’em. And they may, someday, ranked among the best of ’em too.
UTSA has had incredible success. Yet they haven’t. Both are true, but as mere mortals, we have to pick one to think of teams like this. We can’t really put the concept of ‘good and bad at the same time’ in our heads.
So you decide. UTSA’s a team coming off a 3-9 season that TERSE says will get even worse, dropping to 124th in FBS. They’re 15 games under .500 in nine years at the FBS level.
And, once again, they’ve succeeded beyond all imagination.
That’s the paradox of college football.
CORN 