Well you call me your baby
When you’re holding my hand
But the way that you hurt me
I just don’t understand
-The Beatles, ‘I Just Don’t Understand’
I just don’t understand.
Really, I don’t. North Texas went 9-4 in 2018, finishing second in the C-USA West to that great UAB team as quarterback Mason Fine completed 64.6% of passes for 3793 yards.* The team then ranked 45th in Bill Connelly’s returning production metrics as Fine led a solid group of returners.
*You may remember them as the team that successfully ran a fake fair catch against Arkansas en route to a dominant victory. Wasn’t that fun?
This excellent situation resulted in…a 4-8 record, just over 3000 yards passing from Fine, and a fifth-place finish in the West. Disastrous to say the least, especially now that Fine is gone and the Mean Green rank tenth-worst in returning production for 2020. Then again, the opposite situation was true going into 2019 and expectations were thrown out the window by year’s end, so…maybe UNT can do that again?
Yeah, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Still, the last few years have been good ones in Denton, Texas, as the Mean Green almost got the ball rolling on their first extended run of over-.500 play since the 1970s. Seth Littrell went from 5-8 to 9-5 to 9-4 in his first three years alongside Fine, which was great…and then to 4-8 in the last one, which was not.
Most every story you can tell about the briefly thrilling run UNT put together in 2017 and 2018 has a huge 2019-shaped asterisk affixed to it. The hope is that last year (and probably this year too, if we’re being honest) represented a mere blip in the long-awaited rise of the program. The reality is probably not as rosy, and that two-year run may be largely tied to Fine’s finesse, but there is a decent amount of hope that UNT can become a merely average program. That, in and of itself, would be a huge success for Littrell at a university that had gone 36-86 in the eleven years before he showed up.
Offence
2019 TERSE: 39.4 (89th)
2020 Returning Production (SP+): 41% (114th)
Mason Fine, man, what happened to you?
From junior season to senior season, Fine’s yardage total dropped nearly 20%. Sure, development ain’t linear by any stretch, but the quarterback’s mini-collapse was a fundamental part of UNT’s downfall. What with 2019’s step back, it’s not entirely clear that losing two-team C-USA offensive player of the year Fine to graduation is a bad thing. But…let’s be honest, it probably is.
North Texas has two main contenders for the starting spot next year, both freshmen in 2019: of the redshirt variety in Jason Bean, who threw for 176 yards on 35 passes, and of the true sort in Austin Aune, who threw for 136 yards on, uh, five passes.
Curious disparity in yards-per-attempt aside, Bean probably has the edge given his elder status and relatively tested work. On the other hand, he threw as many interceptions as he did touchdowns (3), and mostly played in relief aside from an extended, and bad, appearance against Louisiana Tech: 12 for 16, 94 yards, no TDs and 2 picks.
So the QB position is probably going to be significantly worse than in 2019, when it was significantly worse than in 2018. Great! Who else can the Mean Green turn to?
Well, the good-ish news is that, aside from some worrying losses on a pretty good offensive line, UNT brings back most of its offensive playmakers. Running back Tre Siggers (853 yards and 6 touchdowns rushing), the team leader in yards from scrimmage, has two more years in Denton, and WR Jaelon Darden (736 yards and 12 touchdowns receiving), RB Deandre Torrey (476 yards and 3 touchdowns total), and WR Jyaire Shorter (473 yards and 9 touchdowns receiving) are all back as well. Wide receiver Michael Lawrence, who had 661 yards and three touchdowns last year, is the only huge loss.
Long story short: North Texas’s offence is bristling with weapons just waiting for another good quarterback to take over. If that happens—and it’s far from certain to, remember—UNT could easily sound-and-fury its way to a good season.
Defence
2019 TERSE: 43.4 (92nd)
2020 Returning Production (SP+): 50% (108th)
Hey, if you wanted reason not to believe in 2020 UNT, it’s right here. The team’s projected to rank 103rd in defence next year according to TERSE, as plenty of significant defensive pieces fall away.
Last year’s unit revolved around four core players: Linebackers Tyreke Davis and KD Davis (no relation), DE LaDarius Hamilton, and defensive lineman Dion Novil. The Davis duo will return with 21 TFL and 8 sacks between them last year, and Novil is also back as the second-best TFL producer, but Hamilton, the team’s sack leader last year, is departing. A pair of safeties—Taylor Robinson and Khairi Muhammad—represent the other major losses.
Even if it wasn’t for the iffy returning production, though, UNT’s defence would still be in trouble, what with *waves at 2019* all of that. The Mean Green gave up an eye-popping 31 points to FCS Abilene Christian in the season-opener, then ceded at least 20 points to every opponents aside from UTSA, including 20 to Rice, 26 to UTEP, 46 to Houston, and a whopping 52 to Louisiana Tech. The team allowed 30 points in the majority of its games, and its 32.5 opponent PPG average stood 105th in FBS.
All in all, the UNT defence will have quite a lot to overcome if it wants to be merely average for 2020. It’s not impossible, but this side of the ball isn’t where most of the hope for a better year lies.
North Texas looked really good in 2018. A bristling win over P5 Arkansas, a 9-4 record overall, and a star quarterback in Fine gave the team a bright future. That future has, of course, not come to pass.
But what of their new future? UNT has dreadful returning production and looks like it’s going to be even worse in 2020. A loss to Houston Baptist isn’t entirely out of the question, and a near-last finish in the division seems likely.
Then again, this team’s future seemed so obvious this time a year ago. Maybe, just maybe, North Texas can deny fate one more time.
CORN 