It’s odd what one year can do.
2019 was a significant reset for Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders had completed their seventh straight winning season, coming up just short in the C-USA championship game and going 8-6. Plenty of good players didn’t return, most notably their quarterback Brent Stockstill, but some good pieces were back, especially on an offence that returned Ty Lee, Chaton Mobley, and Terell West, three of MTSU’s top five in yards from scrimmage.
A defensive disappointment seemed likelier, but significant power was back and there was potential for the unit to star. It…did not.
MTSU plunged from eight wins to four, as the defence collapsed and the offence struggled to carry the weight of the team. Despite ranking top-60 in offensive TERSE, pretty impressive for a C-USA team, Middle Tennessee’s bottom-20 defensive rating doomed the team to its downfall.
The peculiar bit about all of this is that the next year may bring even more changes. MTSU sits 12th in offensive returning production and 101st in the defensive counterpart. That leads to a disparity between offensive and defensive TERSE of nearly 20 points, and the 1.54:1 ratio sits just outside the 25 highest in FBS.
What’s especially interesting is that the number could rise even higher. The keystone of the offence, dual-threat quarterback Asher O’Hara returns for a redshirt junior season. Assuming he sticks around through 2021 and other weapons develop well, MTSU could conceivably take aim at an offensive TERSE inside the top 25 in college football.
It’s odd what one year can do. But with O’Hara rising and most of the offence coming along with him, the sky’s the limit for Middle Tennessee.
Offence
2019 TERSE: 50.9 (57th)
2020 Returning Production (SP+): 82% (12th)
MTSU was a very weird team last year. Sure, they were expected to regress, but given the departure of a solid quarterback and a properly good history on defence, the reason they regressed—poor defence despite a good offence—was surprising.
But the upside of that is that the Blue Raiders have reasonably good expectations for a top-50 offence next year. Obviously, Asher O’Hara will lead the assault, but the fleet of options surrounding him is exciting to say the least.
O’Hara’s 2019, for a sophomore quarterback in his first year starting, was superb. The concrete industry management major completed 62.7% of passes for 2616 yards, racking up 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. On the ground, O’Hara by far led the team in yards from scrimmage, rushing for 1058.
What with a quarterback who rushed for a thousand yards last year, it’d be nice to have some receiving depth. Well, guess what MTSU has?
Jarrin Pierce, Jimmy Marshall, and Zack Dobson were three of the four best pass-catchers last year, and all return for the 2020 campaign. Between them, they racked up 1317 yards receiving and 13 touchdowns. (Dobson also featured as an occasional running back, accumulating 113 yards on 17 carries for an excellent 6.6 Y/A average.)
On the rushing side of the ball, insofar as the team will need it, Terell West’s 290 yards are leaving Murfreesboro, but Chaton Mobley’s 208 (plus 126 receiving) return for his junior season.
The offence should be great in 2020, and if MTSU returns to its winning ways, it will be on the back of a dominant O’Hara and company.
Defence
2019 TERSE: 34.5 (113th)
2020 Returning Production (SP+): 51% (101st)
Implicit in that assertion is an unfortunate corollary: the defence will be just awful next year.
It’s not that a bad defence is a certainty, although it’s incredibly likely. Some difference-makers from 2019, like linebacker DQ Thomas (12 TFL, 74 tackles) and safety Reed Blankenship (58 tackles, 2 interceptions), do come back. But defensive end Tyshun Render (10 TFL, 49 tackles, 3.5 sacks), safety Jovante Moffatt (98 tackles, 3 interceptions), and linebacker Khalil Brooks (2.5 sacks, 63 tackles) are all graduating.
The depth, so laudable on the offensive side of things (13 players with at least 100 yards from scrimmage), is dreadful on defence (just 11 with more than 30 tackles, and only five with one or more sacks). The unit tried to get things done with a boom-or-bust approach, picking off eight passes and recovering nine fumbles, but things often went downhill in a hurry because of it. Four different C-USA opponents topped 30 against MTSU, and those teams’ quarterbacks averaged 9.5 yards per passing attempt.
At times, the defence did hold its own, keeping bowl-bound Marshall and FIU to 13 and 17 points, respectively. But teams averaged nearly 30 against the listless Raiders, and with just half the team’s production coming back, things aren’t likely to improve in 2020.
Middle Tennessee certainly had a down year last year. TERSE projects a rise to 6-6 for 2020, but it’s hard to think that the Raiders would be too happy with that, especially with a defence as bad as this one will probably be.
Still, the team has a bright future. Since 1981, MTSU has had just twelve losing seasons, compared to 25 winning ones. Rick Stockstill’s tenure has marked a particularly fruitful era for the team, 91-86 under his guidance with bowl appearances in the first six years in C-USA. Last year was a letdown, but 2020 is a chance for the veteran to get back on track and lead the Raiders to another successful season.
Expectations were reset in 2019, but the coming year should mark a step forward for Middle Tennessee, with O’Hara headlining a potentially fantastic offence.
It’s odd what one year can do.
CORN 