What’s the point of all this?
It’s hard to ignore recent events in any discussion nowadays. A novel form of the coronavirus has shot across the world in just a handful of months, infecting the majority of countries and forcing near-total shutdown and economic collapse.
It’s in a time like this, certainly a cultural crossroads and perhaps the moment of truth for the information age, when people of every nationality and division must come together and do what’s best for each other. That’s kind of a novel idea—caring about people you don’t know, whose stories will never affect your own, but taking measures to help them anyway, even if it’s only something so seemingly insignificant* as staying home.
*Please note that this is by far the best way you can help prevent the spread of the disease. See more here.
Western Kentucky surged from three wins to nine last year under a first-year head coach, something that really shouldn’t matter at all. Yet it does, and we care, and it brings us joy, aside from Arkansas fans. And perhaps the fact that we care so much about the mere struggles of a college football team we don’t even cheer for is a sign of possibility and potential, not of distraction and amusement.
This is no new idea; G. H. Fleming closed his fantastic account of the 1908 National League pennant race, The Unforgettable Season, with an editorial that expresses the same idea:
This newspaper, being loyal to New York, chronicles its sorrow that the pennant has been rudely taken from us. But it rejoices in the patent fact that the people of New York are capable of tumultuous enthusiasm, for in that it sees the hope of every betterment that it has earnestly and honestly sought to bring about.
Editorial page, New York American, 9 October 1908
We are capable of beating whatever comes our way. Be it political corruption, viral pandemic, or stock market crash, the world has again and again shown the remarkable capacity to set aside its monumental, meaningful differences in times of need and stand against danger.
Stay safe and stay well.
Offence
2019 TERSE: 42.1 (84th)
2020 SP+ Returning Production: 53% (90th)
One would be hard-pressed to say that WKU’s remarkable turnaround—from losing to FCS Central Arkansas and starting 1-2 to winning eight of their last ten and quasi-upsetting SEC Arkansas—was the result of the offence. But contrary to appearances, this unit was in fact just fine.
Sure, the Hilltoppers probably wouldn’t have won nine games without a top-50 defence and top-25 luck, but they were also remarkably consistent on offence. Aside from scoring 45 against Arkansas, 31 against MTSU, and 30 against Charlotte (the last two of which are more impressive than the former, bizarrely enough), WKU never hit 30 points in a game. Conversely, though, they only dropped below 20 against Army, and any team would get a bit of a mulligan for poor offensive showing in a game against *waves at triple option* that.
So much for the good news: consistency that would make most coaches salivate and excellent quarterback play from Ty Storey, who transferred from Arkansas and saw his completion percentage soar from 57.2% to 69.9%. The bad news: it’s completely unsustainable.
Storey graduates, as does his top target, Lucky Jackson (94 catches, 1133 yards, 4 touchdowns), leaving running back Gaej Walker (241 rushes, 1208 yards, 8 touchdowns as a junior) to carry a lot of the weight. Walker broke out last year in his first chance to start, and with the uncertain case of Steven Duncan (70 for 119, 790 yards, 5:4 TD-to-INT ratio) starting under centre, second-year head coach Tyson Helton will likely turn to him often.
Insofar as Duncan will be throwing, he’ll be doing so to Jahcour Pearson, the only other receiver to top 800 yards last year (next-best was Joshua Simon, with 430). Pearson was especially effective in the red zone, catching 7 touchdowns, despite having nearly twenty fewer targets than Jackson. The offence will be experienced again in 2020, as a lot of the depth is just a year younger than the graduating class, so don’t be surprised if things look about the same pre-2021.
Defence
2019 TERSE: 68.2 (36th)
2020 SP+ Returning Production: 89% (6th)
If you love college football like I do, you ought to be really excited about what WKU’s defence can do in 2020. The unit was excellent last year, as opponents averaged just 335.5 points per game against them last year (a top-25 mark defensively). In part due to playing in C-USA, TERSE wasn’t quite as high on them, but a computer pegging a team in the nation’s second-worst conference 36th in anything is surprising.
Also, WKU brings back about 89% of that.
TERSE already projects the 26th-best defence in college football, and it’s being a bit hesitant as usual. The unit easily has top-25 potential and could lead WKU to a 10-win season in spite of an offence TERSE sees ending up in 92nd. For a G5 team to do what the Hilltoppers did defensively last year is impressive enough; to do it and bring back nearly the whole team is amazing.
Defensive lineman DeAngelo Malone will be the headline player for WKU in 2020, having gone from six sacks to eleven in his junior season last year and also racking up 99 tackles and 20.5 TFL. Juwuan Jones will line up alongside him with hopes of bettering his 12.5 TFL and seven sacks from his sophomore season. Linebacker Kyle Bailey, who had three picks last year, also returns, and it’s difficult to find a weakness on any front.
Sure, the defence had its moments of weakness last year—nobody wants to give up 35 points to an FCS team—but most of them came early in the season. After a nightmarish start in which they gave up 29 points per game in the first three of the year, WKU settled down and held opponents to an average of just 17.4 from that point onward. The Hilltoppers closed the year by pinning down LeVante Bellamy, top running back in the nation in total touchdowns, to 60 yards, about half his average.
First, a quick programming note: CORN’s 2020 previews will be continuing for the foreseeable future. Of course, ‘the foreseeable future’ is an uncomfortable phrase in the most uncertain time since 2009, but rest assured that we’re fine for now.
WKU totally upended expectations in 2019, reversing a multi-year downward trend and tripling its win total. Whether they can keep the magic going and shove their way into the New Year’s Six conversation next year will be one of the most interesting questions in C-USA next year. They’re the top team in the East until proven otherwise, and their 2020 potential is off the charts.
If you’re caught wondering why any of this matters—why anyone would care right now—you’re asking the right questions. And the most important thing anyone can emphasise, no matter who they are, is that we must all do what we can to keep ourselves and others safe.
But in a broader sense, this does matter. Because the fact that, even in the midst of a global crisis, Americans are still worried about the future of sports shows that we have an incredible ability to care about things—all of us, together.
Now all we have to do is get to work.
CORN 